Four key uncertainties underpin SPP's peak load forecast

Factors that could reduce realised peak load below SPP's 2025 ITP projections.
Uncertainty Description
Unfiltered, self-reported spot loads Future 2 includes 100% of spot loads based on voluntary, unverified surveys from transmission operators - with no filter for whether loads have secured land, permits, or power agreements.
Connection timeline SPP acknowledges that large loads frequently delay or defer interconnection, but applies no probability-weighted discount to account for this.
Hypothetical resiliency conditions The highest peak load figures layer extreme weather, high outage rates, and stressed generator performance simultaneously - a scenario SPP itself describes as "hypothetical and unlikely."
Transmission constraints Physical grid limitations may throttle the pace at which new large loads can actually interconnect and draw power, regardless of what the forecast assumes.