PJM has identified three potential paths to redesign the capacity market

Path A Stabilized markets Mandate long-term hedging Path B Differential reliability Ration reliability across customer classes Path C Energy market transition Shift revenue toward energy and ancillary services
Description Most load is covered years ahead, via LSE hedging mandates or PJM-administered procurement. New large loads without matching supply get curtailed first. Capacity market narrows to a backstop; energy and AS scarcity prices do the work.
Risks (per PJM) Needs a "super-cap" non-compliance penalty. Rapid rollout could amplify the affordability shock it aims to fix. "Most complex of the three paths." Needs coordinated FERC and state action. E&AS reforms are "non-trivial and contested." Sequencing risk: weak capacity signals before energy reform = reliability gap.
BESS impact Ambiguous. Capacity products have anchored on thermal reference units. Procurement driver for hyperscaler-backed storage, but no change to the wholesale revenue stack. Most favorable. More scarcity upside, biggest AS reforms.