ERCOT TB2 spreads are expected to peak above $135k/MW-year in 2033 before halving to $57k by the late 2040s

System-wide TB2 price spreads in real 2023 dollars ($k/MW-year)

Source: ERCOT, Modo Energy Q1 2026 ERCOT Forecast

Note: TB2 spreads represent the two highest top-bottom spread hours, a proxy for battery energy arbitrage revenue. Values are in real 2023 USD.

MODOENERGY