ERCOT peak demand is expected to reach 129 GW by 2040, 23% below ERCOT's adjusted projection of 168 GW

Peak Demand (GW)

Historical

Modo Energy Q1 2026

Modo Energy Q4 2025

ERCOT

ERCOT (Adjusted)

Source: Modo Energy ERCOT Forecast Q1 2026, ERCOT LTLF 2025

Note: "ERCOT" reflects the LTLF 2025 base case, built from Transmission Service Provider (TSP) submissions. "ERCOT (Adjusted)" reflects ERCOT's own adjustments for expected large load attrition and delays.

MODOENERGY